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Endogeneity, or "The Skill of the Brewmeister"

The latest OkCupid blog post is one of their more interesting ones:

No matter their gender or orientation, beer-lovers are 60% more likely to be okay with sleeping with someone they've just met. Sadly, this is the only question with a meaningful correlation for women.

Of course, once every dude starts asking this question on the first date and every girl figures out that her answer is a signal of how easy she is, the correlation will almost surely vanish. Even if a woman is willing to put out on the first date, that doesn't mean she wants to advertise the fact early on. (It's at least possible that I am out of touch with the youth of America and am wrong about this.)

Accordingly, I predict a brief surge in beer-lover questions (and guys trying to bring their first dates to Bierstubes, Bierhausen, Bierhalls, and the like), followed by the evolution of non-committal, correlation-breaking answers to "do you like the taste of beer?" like

  • Only if it comes from a big keg,
  • It depends on the skill of the brewmeister, and
  • I do like the taste of beer, but not on the first date.

If OkCupid were evil (which they probably are, now that they're a division of IAC), they'd instead sell a limited number of subscriptions to this sort of information, so that dudes could use these questions without having to worry that the dating pool had been overfished.

If they were really evil (which they probably are, now that they're a division of IAC), they'd report false correlations and then laugh at people who tried to put them into practice. However, I assume that if they'd done this they would have chosen a funnier question than "Do you like the taste of beer?"

I'll explore this further in my next post, "The Only Question That Correlates With Whether Women Put Out Is 'Did you ever find Bugs Bunny attractive when he put on a dress and played girl bunny?'"

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